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| | MBPT Spotlight | NewMediaMetrics Survey Picks 'The Crazy Ones' As Next Broadcast-Network Hit
By John Consoli
Brand strategy company NewMediaMetrics has released its annual fall broadcast TV freshman series predictions, with CBS sitcom The Crazy Ones getting the highest probability of success and three ABC sitcoms tapped to be cancelled quickly.
The NMM projections are based on responses by more than 3,000 consumers who were asked to rate show concept statements and score their emotional attachment on an 11-point scale.
While the broadcast networks are all striving to put more comedy on their primetime schedules, the NMM data projects only a couple of freshman comedies will succeed, with dramas having a better chance to click.
Among the fall freshman series with a high probability to succeed, CBS, NBC and Fox each have three, while ABC and The CW have two each. On the downside, ABC has five freshman series with a high probability of failure, CBS and Fox have three each, NBC has two and The CW has one.
The new series with the strongest chance for success is The Crazy Ones, starring Robin Williams and Sarah Michelle Gellar, which scored 87.1% on the probability meter. Following close behind was the NBC sitcom The Michael J. Fox Show at 86%. Other freshman series projecting a high probability for success were Fox drama Sleepy Hollow (83.3%); NBC drama Ironside (78.4%); Fox drama Almost Human (76.3%); NBC drama The Blacklist (73.7%); ABC drama Marvel's Agents of S.H.I.E.L.D. (73.5%); ABC drama Once Upon a Time in Wonderland (73.2%); The CW dramas Reign (67.4%) and The Tomorrow People (63.6%); NBC's Dracula (63%); and Fox's Junior MasterChef (61.1%).
"Series that score over 80% have the best probability of success, over 70% gives them a really strong chance, while over 60% is also good," said Gary Reisman, NMM CEO and cofounder. "Series that score lower than 50% are likely to be cancelled."
Which new broadcast-network fall shows are most likely to fail, according to NMM's survey of consumers? And how will some of the new series perform among specific viewer demos?
For more, click HERE
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| | Fates & Fortunes | • DAVE CLEMANS was named executive creative director at Colangelo. He was executive creative director and managing partner at Taxi New York until departing last October. Prior to that, he was executive creative director at CHI & Partners and creative director at Crispin Porter + Bogusky.
• JEROME BETTIS has joined ESPN as an NFL analyst. Bettis is a 13-year NFL veteran, a six-time Pro Bowl running back and won a Super Bowl with the Pittsburgh Steelers. He will appear on NFL Live and SportsCenter and contribute to other ESPN platforms beginning Sept. 1.
• CHRIS McLOUGHLIN was named publisher of Rolling Stone. He was most recently publisher of Men's Journal, which like Rolling Stone is owned by Wenner Media. McLoughlin replaces Matt Mastrangelo who left the post in June. Prior to joining Wenner Media, McLoughlin was associate publisher of Redbook.
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| | What They're Watching | BROADCAST RATINGS
'MasterChef' Up Slightly as Fox Wins Wednesday
Fox won Wednesday night with MasterChef up from last week. NBC and CBS tied for second though NBC was first in total viewers. America's Got Talent and Camp were both even with last week's season-low. CBS' Big Brother rose. ABC's The Lookout fell. The CW aired repeats.
For more, click HERE
CABLE RATINGS
'Rizzoli & Isles', 'Catfish', 'The Game', & 'Amish Mafia' Tie for Tuesday Night's Top Spot
TNT'S Rizzoli & Isles, MTV'S Catfish: The TV Show, BET'S The Game, & Discovery's Amish Mafia tied for Tuesday's top cable original, each earning a 1.1 adults 18-49 rating. Rizzoli & Isles and Amish Mafia matched last week's performance. The Game was up from last week's 1.0 Adults 18-49 rating. History's The Legend of Shelby the Swamp Man and USA's Suits tied for second with each earning a 1.0 adults 18-49 rating.
For more, click HERE
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| Overnight Ratings: Wednesday, August 21
| | 8 PM | | NET | SHOW | A18-49
Rating | TOTAL VIEWERS
(MILLION) | CBS
| BIG BROTHER
| 2.2
| 6.3
| UNIVISION
| PORQUE EL AMOR MANDA
| 1.4
| 3.8
| NBC
| AMERICA'S GOT TALENT
| 1.3
| 5.8
| FOX
| MASTERCHEF (R)
| 1.1
| 3.0
| ABC
| THE MIDDLE (R) (8:00)
LAST MAN STANDING (R) (8:30)
| 0.8
0.8
| 3.6
3.6
| CW
| ARROW (R)
| 0.4
| 1.3
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| | 9 PM | | NET | SHOW | A18-49
Rating | TOTAL VIEWERS
(MILLIONS) | FOX
| MASTERCHEF
| 2.3
| 5.5
| NBC
| AMERICA'S GOT TALENT
| 2.1
| 9.2
| UNIVISION
| LA TEMPESTAD
| 1.4
| 3.5
| ABC
| MODERN FAMILY (R) (9:00)
THE NEIGHBORS (R) (9:30)
| 1.0
0.7
| 3.3
2.4
| CBS
| CRIMINAL MINDS (R)
| 0.9
| 4.4
| CW
| SUPERNATURAL (R)
| 0.2
| 0.9
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| | 10 PM | | NET | SHOW | A18-49
Rating | TOTAL VIEWERS
(MILLIONS) | CBS
| CSI: CRIME SCENE INVESTIGATION (R)
| 1.1
| 5.7
| UNIVISION
| QUÉ BONITO AMOR
| 1.1
| 3.1
| NBC
| CAMP
| 0.9
| 3.4
| ABC
| THE LOOKOUT
| 0.7
| 2.9
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| | TOMORROW'S BIG RATINGS STORIES TODAY | • 'Motive' and 'Rookie Blue' Solid for ABC on Thursday…
ABC's Thursday-night summer police dramas Motive at 9 p.m. and Rookie Blue at 10 continue to draw audiences of more than 5 million. Motive, which follows an ensemble cast of police officers who don't focus on who committed the crime but try to determine why, has averaged 5.1 million viewers and a 1.1 18-49 demo rating. Rookie Blue, which follows a group of young patrol officers, has averaged 5.5 million viewers and a 1.1 demo rating. Both first-run series are competing against solid CBS procedural dramas, Person of Interest and Elementary, albeit in repeats, but they are solidly competitive in their time periods. The upshot: Other than The Bachelorette, which has completed its summer run, Motive and Rookie Blue are ABC's most-watched summer series. Rookie Blue has been renewed for a fifth summer season. Thursday night is important for retailer advertisers during August with back-to-school promotions. The two police dramas can be attractive buys for that category and movie studios.
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| • …While 'Elementary' Hangs Tough for CBS…
The first-year drama series starring Jonny Lee Miller and Lucy Liu, which offers an offbeat twist on crime-solving, has been a solid summer performer in repeats on Thursday nights at 10. After averaging 9.9 million viewers and a 2.1 18-49 rating during the regular season, Elementary is averaging 5 million viewers and a 0.9 in the demo this summer. Attracting 50% of its regular-season viewership is good, although like most summer procedurals, the show's audience is older. The upshot: CBS continues to find new procedural hits for the regular season that do well in summer repeats, and Elementary is the latest example. Elementary did not do as well as the series it replaced on Thursday nights during the regular season, The Mentalist. But any that averages close to 10 million viewers can be considered a major success.
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| • …And Fox Turns to Thursday Comedy Repeats
Fox enjoyed another successful summer run with Hell's Kitchen on Thursday nights, but with that series done, the network is airing repeats of Glee at 8 p.m., New Girl at 9 and The Mindy Project at 9:30. New Girl and Mindy also air in repeats on Mondays at 9 and 9:30, respectively. Glee averaged 5.6 million viewers and a 2.1 18-49 rating in the regular season, but since it replaced Hell's Kitchen this summer at 8 it has averaged 1.5 million viewers and a 0.5 18-49 rating. New Girl is averaging 1.4 million viewers and a 0.6 demo rating, while Mindy is averaging 1.3 million and a 0.6 demo rating. The upshot: Fox pretty much gave up on the summer this year, offering only its three summer staples— MasterChef, Hell's Kitchen and So You Think You Can Dance—with the rest of its slate being regular-season repeats, including the double repeat airings of New Girl and Mindy on two nights.
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PLEASE NOTE that the Media Buyer & Planner Today Newsletter will NOT be published tomorrow, August 23. Look for the next issue on Monday, August 26.
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| Media Buyer & Planner Today
Editorial Team
John Consoli, Contributing Editor
Phone: 201-314-0424 | Send Email
Jon Lafayette, Business Editor, Broadcasting & Cable
Phone: 917-281-4735 | Send Email
Brian Moran, Managing Editor, Broadcasting & Cable
Phone: 917-281-4708 | Send Email
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